Will Virtual Worlds Become Bigger Than The Web?

I've decided I'm going to start writing a few more posts about Second Life and virtual worlds in general. I've been visiting SL on a regular basis and I'm finding that the more time I spend there, the more interesting it is becoming to me.

I've also been prompted to write by this revealing 4 part video interview with Second Life CEO Philip Rosedale. Rosedale expresses his thoughts about the current state of Second Life, their plans for future improvements, and where virtual worlds might be heading in the future. It's well worth a viewing if you are at all interested in the nature of virtual worlds and social media.

Rosedale has made the grand assertion that virtual worlds could potentially become bigger than the web is now, and that we could be at the beginning of something that has a long term impact on the world (and he's not just talking about Second Life, but other competing worlds as well). He does also state that he could be wrong.

Whatever the case, it's clear that the idea of virtual worlds has been around for a while, and doesn't seem to be going away. Second Life is the first world to reach some sort of critical mass in terms of popularity, visibility, usage and economy. It is currently about the size of San Francisco, has around 200,000 visitors a day, and has a million dollar a day economy. Is there a chance of this going backwards or coming to a halt for some reason, say if the real world U.S. economy fell into recession soon? Perhaps, only time will tell.

Rosedale makes the fundamental point that although we use the term 'cyberspace' today, the web as we know it is not really a space or a place. He maintains that to create popular 3D digital worlds with the physical presence of 'us', potentially has far greater reach than anything we have created so far on the web. He explains that the main lure of of virtual worlds is that there are other people there. You can just walk up to strangers and talk to them, more easily than you can in real life. This human interaction is empowering. Virtual worlds can bring people together in a very social way.

I'm finding that the most interesting interactive experiences emerging at the moment are ones with a shared social experience, where the core engagement or interaction is with other people. Answer me this question: when was the last time you wanted to spend more than a hour at a time interacting at a single site in 'cyberspace'? Was it a site that involved interacting with other people, using new social media tools such as Facebook, flickr, YouTube, MySpace, Twitter or Second Life? Was it game played with other people over a network?

Will virtual worlds eventually become bigger than the web? Who knows, but I'm going to keep an open mind about their value and merit before being so quick as to write them off at this very early stage. I'm going to keep exploring and learning for the time being and see where it leads.

My avatar name is jjprojects infinity in Second Life. Please feel free to add me as a friend.

Mobile Social Networking: It Has Begun

Although I haven't tried it myself (as the iPhone hasn't been released in Australia yet), I've noticed many positive comments in the blogosphere about the iPhone Facebook Application. For example, today Pronet Advertising stated:

"Not only does it offer a great user experience over a mobile device, it gives new meaning to the term social networking as you can actually use it to network while you are being social - as in out and about, not chained to your computer...Before I might as well have been typing in, sitting at my computer updating my Facebook status everytime I did an update, now with the touch of one button I can type in an update when I'm actually doing it."

I find all the positive commentary intriguing and exciting. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, I think it's only a matter of time before we see a mobile based social network hit critical mass and really take-off. You don't need any official figures to know that there are a LOT of mobile phones sold every year, so the potential is staggering.

Together with the success of this iPhone application and the emergence of social networking services such as Twitter, it seems that we might just be seeing the very early stages of the widespread adoption of mobile social networking. If we look at the iPhone alone, there is no doubt that soon there will be millions of them in existence in many different countries, and many iPhone owners will also be members of social networking sites and services such as Facebook.

I don't want to jump the gun here, because predicting the future is always a dicey business. However, I do think it's clear that there is a real demand for mobile networking services and applications. Sure, it might take a while, and there may be setbacks along the way, but being a Twitter addict myself, I've become intensely aware of the value and power of mobile networking. I think it's here to stay, and can only grow stronger. What are your thoughts - agree or disagree?

Are Interconnected Virtual Worlds The Future Of The Web?

A LOT seems to have been going on in the arena of virtual worlds lately. Amongst other events, Disney acquired Club Penguin (a virtual world for kids) for $350 million. Mattel has even launched a Barbie Girls virtual world. According to Techcruch, Barbie Girls hit 3 million users in just the first 60 days in operation.

Some other virtual world efforts include There, Entropia Universe, Cyworld, Zwinktopia, Stardoll, Haboo Hotel, Web Kinz, Gaia Online, Neopets. In addition, the newly released Multiverse platform allows people to actually create their own online 3D worlds.

All this activity begs the question: are we going to see an eventual migration to an interconnected network of different 3D virtual worlds on the web? Will we then be able to wander around a 3D virtual web, moving from world to world, perhaps with the same avatar and user profile? If this becomes the case, we would of course still be able to jump back to the 2D web at the click of a button.

A current Business Week article Just Ahead: The Web As A Virtual World addresses this concept. The article points out that Google, Linden Lab and IBM are all working on products based on the belief that this scenario is not just possible, it is on the way.

It does seem clear that it's not going to happen any time soon, but I can't help wondering what the web will be like in 10 years. Is that enough time for this idea to become a reality, and then for it to become mainstream? It does pay to think about what has happened during the last 10 years. This kind of change seems equivalent to the amount of change since the early days of the web.

Significantly, Linden Lab (makers of Second Life) plans to publish the software code for its servers. Developers will then be able to modify it to create their own worlds and build connections between them.

The previously mentioned Multiverse Network, which was founded by some early Netscape employees, has developed avatars that can move from one world to the next. However, people need to use the company's browser which surfs only worlds created using the Multiverse software. Multiverse gives away the tools so that users can build their worlds for free. The Business Week article maintains that more than 200 are in the works.

Within 18 months, the Web3D Consortium (a 3D web standards group) also hopes to launch an avatar that can jump between sites. The Web3D Consortium was formed to

"provide a forum for the creation of open standards for Web3D specifications, and to accelerate the worldwide demand for products based on these standards through the sponsorship of market and user education programs."

It seems clear that highly engaging and entertaining virtual worlds are going to become a big part of the future of the web. I for one have decided to spend more time in Second Life, as well as trying out other virtual worlds. Apart from having fun, I'd like to achieve a good understanding of the the Second LIfe community and how it operates while it's still reasonably early days. However the story plays out, it's certain that there is a lot more for virtual worlds on the near horizon.

What do you think? Are interoperable virtual worlds going to play a central role in the future of the web, or is this just more 3D virtual hype?

Post Sydney Tweetup Thoughts

The first Sydney Twitter Meetup was held last Wednesday at Pier 26 Bar. Thanks to Cathy Edwards from the Telstra Chief Technology Office for co-organising the Sydney event with me. She had organised a couple of tweetups in Melbourne previously, so it was good to have her encouragement to help this one happen.

It was a good turnout of about 30 people at Pier 26, and I think the Sydney twitterati had a good time. We also had a few people from out of town which was great. Jared Madden and Adam Purcell, who are organising the first PodCamp Australia attended, and Dave King from St Edmonds Lab in Melbourne came along as well. Thanks to those guys for making the effort.

From my point of view, it was really great to finally meet some of my local Twitter friends in the flesh. I also met some people who weren't yet my Twitter friends but are now. I had fun contacting people through Twitter and Facebook beforehand to encourage them to attend. It was all an interesting social media experiment, which seemed to work out pretty well.

If I had one negative comment to make, it would be that there weren't enough women there. As I've mentioned before, this seems to be a fairly common occurrence in interactive, especially on the development and creative sides, and in senior roles. Personally, I really would like to see that change. I wouldn't like to see that continue into this new area of social media either, should it develop into a growth industry in itself (which it already seems to be).

A big thanks to Happener for sponsoring the drinks on the night, and to Nick Hodge from Microsoft for supplying a copy of Windows Vista for the 'best tweet on the night' prize.

Thanks to Tim Buesing and Dave King from Netx and St Edmonds Lab at Netx for recording and podcasting a few interviews on the night. The interviews can be found on the St Edmonds Lab blog here.

Quite a few photos were also taken. In true social media style, a lot of them (including mine) can be found on flickr, here

Is The iPhone A Game Changer?

So I've been thinking about the iPhone a little more since my first post about it, The Apple (2G) iPhone Hype.

It hasn't been released in Australia yet of course, and God (Steve Jobs) only knows when it will be, but from what I've been reading and hearing, iPhones seem to be selling like hotcakes in the U.S. What's more, the iPhone also seems to be living up to all the hype. Apart from a few activation problems, people seem to be loving their new iPhones.

I'm thinking that if I had an iPhone now, among other things I'd most probably be using PocketTweets for Twitter on my iPhone. I'd be visiting social networking sites like Facebook regularly, and I'd be downloading and listening to my favourite podcasts. I'm thinking that if I want to do things like this, many others do too.

I was listening to Mitch Joel's latest episode (#59) of his Six Pixels of Separation podcast the other day. He pointed out that from a marketing perspective, because iPhones are selling like hotcakes and because around one hundred million iPods have already been sold, this is going to be a game changer, and we need to be paying attention to it.

I think Mitch is absolutely correct. A lot of people are starting to listen to podcasts (including video) about everything under the sun. A lot of people are using social networking sites. A lot of people are beginning to use services like Twitter, which can be updated from mobile phones, web or IM...and now, a lot of people are starting to buy iPhones.

I'm sure I don't need to point out that large numbers of people will now be be able to do all these things and more with one device. In addition, I'm sure it will only be a matter of time before we see a mobile based social network really take off. Things are starting to get really interesting in the mobile space.

What do you think? Is this a game changer, or do you think it won't make much of an impact?

The Sydney Meetup Is On

CathyE and I have taken it upon ourselves to organise a Sydney Twitter Meetup. Cathy has already been involved in organising a couple of them in Melbourne. Those Melbourne people are on the ball!

I'm not sure how it will go, but my attitude is - let's just do it and see what happens! It should be a good chance for like minded people to get together face-to-face. Nobody really knows where this whole social media phenomenon is going, but it's clear that something really interesting is happening all over the place - Twittering, podcasting, PodCamps, meetups, social networking sites, blogging, virtual worlds. Let's just run with it and see where it leads, as long as it's fun! It's a whole new interactive world we are building, so let's get together and support each other.

If you will be in Sydney on the Wednesday 25 July and are interested in coming along , follow our twitters to get the details as they come to hand. Feel free to direct message me via Twitter or send me an email about the event as well.

http://twitter.com/jjprojects
http://twitter.com/CathyE

iPhone And Surface Multi-Smudge Technology

Here are a couple of healthy spoofs about the Apple iPhone and Microsoft Surface, with their much hpyed multi-touch technology.


I like a joke as much as the next person, but really, I'm keen to give both products a try. On the face of it, they both seem to offer some great possibilities for the future.

On a side note, it's good to see that the first iPhone sold (bought by Johnny Vulkan and Spike Lee) is currently being auctioned for charity.

via Diablogue

The Value Of Unconnected Holidays

If you are a regular reader, you may have noticed that I haven't posted here for a couple of weeks. I've been taking an unconnected break in the Southern Alps of New Zealand. I spent my time visiting family in Wanaka and Queenstown. These alpine resort towns are in the Southern Lakes region of the South Island, and are surrounded by mountains. It's a beautiful place to be at any time of year, and especially when the mountains are capped with snow.
Although these places are by no means devoid of digital technology (far from it in fact), I decided to make it a fairly unconnected holiday this time. I didn't take a computer or an iPod, and I had my mobile device turned off most of the time. The only digital device I used constantly was a digital camera (I'll post some more photos of the trip on my flickr photostream when I get a chance).

I did get withdrawal symptoms for the first couple of days, not being hyper-connected through instant messenger, email and online social networks. I wasn't even able to be tempted by my favourite new media podcasts. After a couple of days I started to relax into the holiday and it became a very refreshing experience. It was actually a very social time, with a lot of family members and friends of family gathering for a surprise birthday event, but it was all face-to-face communication for a change.
The day we were due to fly out of Queenstown, it started snowing heavily. The airport closed just before our flight and the roads connecting the town to the outside world were also closed. It was then that I began to need my mobile phone and web connection again, to be able to reorganise travel plans, but even then I only visited an internet cafe once. It was a three day wait before the airport opened again.
Being snowed-in was an unexpected surprise, but ultimately it was a fun time and I'm glad I had a break from being hyper-connected. I came to the conclusion that it's important to do that from time to time, as it's a great way of recharging the batteries, avoiding digital and social network burnout, and it makes you appreciate it all the more when you come back online.
I'd highly recommend the experience, but now that I'm back, normal communications will resume. Have you taken a non-digital holiday recently - without the crackberry, computer, or whatever your digital addiction is? How did you find it?

The Apple (2G) iPhone Hype

The hype surrounding the Apple iPhone is now in full swing, but apart from the new ads and the information on the Apple site, not many details are currently available. It seems that very few people have actually used one. I'd certainly like to try one out, if only to see what the multi-touch screen and soft keyboard are like. They way the technology is presented in the ads, it all seems easy and seamless, as you would expect in an Apple ad. I must say that I love the idea of having mobile web, iPod and phone is one beautifully designed package. It seems like it's been a long time coming.

I do have some reservations about this first release. According to the tech specs, it's basically a GSM phone with Wi-Fi capability for wireless data. In the U.S. it will support Cingular’s EDGE network. I can understand the business reasons behind this decision but can't help but be disappointed that the first release will not be 3G. I could be wrong about that here in Australia, it'll be interesting to see what the network arrangements are in Australia when the iPhone is eventually released here. This is not going to be until next year I believe. It seems clear that it won't be running on a 3G network, unless Apple releases a different version here.

Considering the capacity of current iPods, it's also a little disappointing that the storage capacity is going to be 4GB and 8GB. Having said that, it's easy to forget that this is still great compared to most other mobile phones on the market – and it is a iPod.

In the interests of full disclosure, I need to say that I currently own a Nokia 7710. Telstra gave this to me in return for testing out a mobile tv service just before they launched their 3G network. I've also worked with Nokia (on some 3G marketing demos) in their FutureLab in Sydney, so I'm pretty attached to Nokia phones, even though their compatibility with Macs has always been a issue.

The crux of the matter for me is that I like Apple products, I've been buying them for years (and years), and I like Nokia phones. I'd love to be able to say I have no reservations about jumping in and buying an iPhone as soon as they are released, but at the moment I'm not so sure. I'd love to have a 3G iphone that syncs seamlessly with my Mac, but it looks like I might have to wait quite some time for that situation.

What are your thoughts on the iPhone?

Flickrvision (Beta)

Flickrvision, another mesmerising application from David Troy.

HD Videoconferencing

Here's a really, really bad ad for the new Cisco HD Telepresence conferencing system, which will no doubt become a must have (or want to have) system for many corporations (despite the advertising).

Robert Scoble is doing a better job of getting the word out. Here's a far less embarrassing (but not as amusing) video demo he has put together.

Anyone who has participated in a frustrating videoconference will appreciate the advances apparent in this new system. The three screen version apparently comes in at around US$300,000, or US$80,000 for a single screen version, so it won't be for personal use any time soon unless you happen to be seriously wealthy.

via Scobleizer and Amnesia Blog

How Will Twitter Make Money?

Many people believe that Twitter is a flash in the pan and will disappear as the novelty wears off and people move on to the next new thing. One very similar competitor site (Jaiku.com) has already emerged. For now however, according to Steve Rubel, Twitter has over 100,000 users and the size of the community is doubling every three weeks.

The main challenge for Twitter moving forward will of course be its ability to generate income. Rubel asserts that Twitter's most active users are quite influential (including him), and that many users voluntarily receive messages via IM and mobile phones. He maintains that if Twitter's parent company (Obvious Corp), or possibly a company that acquires Twitter, can think of a way to let the community opt-in to commercial mobile messages, Twitter could turn into a real cash cow. He points out that over 1700 users already opt-in to receiving messages from Woot on Twitter, so it's not mere speculation, even at this early stage.

Rubel makes some good points. It's true, many users don't seem to have a problem with receiving constant messages by IM and mobile phone via Twitter, although this could become quite selective as the number of users escalates, say to YouTube or MySpace levels.

I've noticed that a few well known news organisations including The New York Times, CNET News and BBC World Service have already started to deliver messages on a very regular basis, so the potential for a wide variety of corporations to use the site is obvious (so to speak). None of them really have a decent following at present, but it's still very early days.

What is significant about the nature of Twitter, is that a lot of users seem to be keen to tell others which products they use and trust, and where in the world they themselves are located. It will be possible for marketers to act on this information in various ways. This will have to be achieved in ways that are not intrusive, or the tech and media savvy users could be turned off.

Twitter could go down the route of displaying banner advertising and user profile branding on the actual site, which have become ubiquitous on YouTube without denting its popularity. There is always Google advertising, and Google the company to take into account. Could Twitter become another acquisition target for Google in the near future? Google is undoubtedly interested in the mobile space.

See you on Twitter.com/jjprojects

Joost and Advertising

You've most probably heard about Joost by now. If not, it's an new (currently in beta), free broadband tv service. The entrepreneurs behind Skype and Kazaa are behind the new venture, so it carries considerable clout to say the least. It's currently the second most popular search on Technorati, so interest in the service is already high.

Here's a little promotional explanation from the Joost site:

"Joost is a new way of watching TV on the internet. With Joost, you get all the things you love about TV, including a high-quality full-screen picture, hundreds of full-length shows and easy channel-flipping. You get great internet features too, such as search, chat and instant messaging, built right into the program. Joost is completely free, and works with most modern PCs and Intel Mac-based computers with a broadband connection."

Here's a video of V.P. David Clark giving a preview of the service:


Joost's Advertising Model:

There's an article over at adverlab (yes again, great resource) describing Joost's proposed advertising model. Apparently Joost aims to have as little as one minute of commercial time per hour, if current projections are correct. As far a advertising itself is concerned, they say they're aiming for quality, not volume and frequency.

Joost's model apparently includes five to seven second ads that pop-up when particular videos are selected, and mid-roll ads in videos over five minutes in length. The proposed model aims to have one brand sponsor per program. Like interactive web banners, users can also click through for information, offers and long-form content from advertisers. This second step really amounts to on-demand advertising.

One of Joost's stated priorities is a backend that can pinpoint a user's location, viewing time, viewing habits and opt-in profile information in order to serve up extremely targeted and hopefully much more relevant ads. For example, this could mean that advertisers will be able to target particular people in a particular suburb (post code) watching a particular program at a particular time. This is the type of targeting that broadcast tv would die for, so to speak.

So the question now is, if the popularity of Joost (or other services like it) explodes on the web, could this bring us a lot closer to the much discussed death of the standard 30 second tv commercial much sooner than (many agencies have) anticipated? Could this begin to take us down the path of quality on-demand advertising that users can either choose to view and interact with, or dismiss at will? What do you think?

Is the time right for the success of interactive tv delivered over the web?

Made of Japan

Made of Japan is a new site for Onitsuka Tiger. The site shows a hovering shoe made from a mosaic of images. The images link to various Japan related sites. The mosaic shoe changes its colour palette every time a new image is clicked, to reflect the colour palette of the image.

It's a nice simple concept (but not technically simple) and uses existing content in quite an inventive way. However, almost all of the links I followed were blogs by people visiting Japan for one reason or another, rather than Japanese sites. This may be part of the concept, but one blog was by someone visting China, and some blogs didn't seem to relate at all, like this one. Despite these anomalies, I still like the concept.

via Adverblog

Guantanamo Cell QuickTime VR

Amnesty International has constructed a highly realistic life size replica of the Guantanamo cell where Australian David Hicks has been languishing for five years. It began its public tour of Australia in Sydney on 19 March.

There is a claustrophobic QuickTime VR of it on this Sydney panorama blog site.

Google Homepage Themes

Google has placed a Select theme link on the personalised homepage. The theme panel allows you to choose from one of six themes for your homepage. I'm sure there will me many other options to follow, surely even customisablle options.

These new theme options may seem like a minor event, but if you follow the thinking a little further down the road, is could lead to much more significant features in the future, such as branded themes. Many publishers around the world already offer this feature to advertisers on their homepages.

via Google Blog

Too Much Twitter

Over the past week or so there has been a lot of chatter about Twitter, so much so that today it went down for a while. Presumably it was a victim of its own exploding popularity.

Just in case you haven't heard, Twitter is a social networking service that lets members tell each other what they are doing and thinking at any given moment in time. It allows users to send messages via phone, instant messaging or on the Twitter website. As Wikipedia states "Fans say they are a good way to keep in touch with busy friends. But some users are starting to feel "too" connected, as they grapple with check-in messages at odd hours, higher cellphone bills and the need to tell acquaintances to stop announcing what they're having for dinner."

For a visual Twitter feast, also check out Twittervision by David Troy, which uses Google Maps to display what Twitter users are up to and where they're Twittering from. It's kind of like watching whispers coming from all over the world.

There is also now a new site called Twitterholic (and Twittering is quite addictive), so you can see who the most popular Twitters are. Twittersearch speaks for itself.

There are already some who are predicting Twitter's "flame-out" by the end of the 2007, but for now, it holds the number 1 search spot on Technorati and is obviously growing very quickly.

Google Homepage Live TV

CamMap has new widget that enables you to watch live tv from your Google homepage. You can view live updates from CNN and other networks. LabPixies has one as well.

Thanks to Steve Rubel for this one. As he says, this is surely a sign of things to come.

Second Life Terrorism, or PR Stunt

Metro.co.uk is reporting that virtual world Second Life has experienced its first terrorist attack. It maintains that the Second Life Liberation Army, a home-grown terrorist cell of SL users has staged an online attack and is calling for democratic decision-making in the virtual community. Apparently the group "bombed" an American Apparel outlet and a Reebok store.

However, blog Vi-r-us asserts that it's just a desperate PR stunt to stem the "outflowing tide of interest" in the community.

BitTorrent Deal

Wired is reporting that BitTorrent Inc is launching a new site selling downloads of films and TV shows licensed from studios such as Warner Bros, Paramount Pictures, 20th Century Fox, Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, Lionsgate, with episodes of TV shows such as 24 and Punk'd.

BitTorrent Inc is hoping that at least a third of the 135 million previous downloaders who have used BitTorrent software will be willing to pay for high-quality files, rather than taking their chances with the pirated files.

TV episodes will be $1.99 to own, which is comparable with iTunes.